Stories
Data-driven football journalism
Long-form stories grounded in statistics. Not predictions — narratives built on numbers.
How xG Predicted Leicester's 2015-16 Collapse — That Never Came
In the 2015-16 season, Leicester City's expected-goals data suggested they were dramatically overperforming. Every model said regression was coming. It never did. A data story about the limits of prediction and the beauty of variance.
"Every number is a story that happened on a pitch."
All stories
How xG Predicted Leicester's 2015-16 Collapse — That Never Came
In the 2015-16 season, Leicester City's expected-goals data suggested they were dramatically overperforming. Every model said regression was coming. It never did. A data story about the limits of prediction and the beauty of variance.
The Geography of Premier League Goals: Where on the Pitch Do Teams Score?
Mapping shot locations and conversion rates across all 20 PL clubs. Arsenal's left-half-space dominance, Newcastle's set-piece reliance, and why Brighton score from angles nobody else attempts.
Why Clean Sheets Correlate With Title Wins — A 30-Year Dataset
Since 1992, 24 of 32 Premier League title winners led the league in clean sheets. We chart the relationship between defensive solidity and championship success, season by season.
The Substitution Effect: Do Second-Half Changes Actually Change Outcomes?
Analysing 4,000 Premier League substitutions to measure their impact on match outcomes, goals scored, and xG delta in the 15 minutes after the change.
Possession is Nine-Tenths of Nothing: The Teams That Win Without the Ball
Counter-attacking football works — the data proves it. How low-possession strategies have produced consistent results across three decades, and why the "tiki-taka or bust" narrative is statistically wrong.
Home Advantage After Empty Stadiums: Did Football's Return Change the Data?
Pre-COVID, home teams won 46% of PL matches. During empty stadiums, it dropped to 36%. Post-return, it settled at 43%. The numbers tell a story about atmosphere, referee psychology, and territorial instinct.
Set Pieces: The Hidden Engine of Premier League Points
Set pieces account for roughly 30% of all Premier League goals. We break down which teams are most dangerous from corners, free kicks, and throw-ins — and which are most vulnerable.
The Goalkeeper Revolution: How Shot-Stopping xG Changed the Transfer Market
Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) gave clubs a way to measure goalkeepers objectively for the first time. We trace how the metric went from academic curiosity to transfer-window currency.
Pressing Traps: How the Best Teams Win the Ball Back in Dangerous Areas
High PPDA numbers tell part of the story. The real insight is where teams press. We map the pressing triggers of the top six and show how geography of pressure translates into goals.
The January Effect: Do Winter Signings Actually Improve Results?
Every January window is billed as season-defining. We analysed 10 years of mid-season transfers against subsequent points-per-game to find out whether the data supports the hype.
Shot Maps Decoded: What Your Team's Shooting Pattern Really Means
Not all shots are equal. We compare shot maps across the league to reveal which teams create central chances, which rely on long-range efforts, and why shot location is the single best predictor of goal output.
Red Cards and Regression: Do 10-Man Teams Really Lose More Often?
Conventional wisdom says a red card ruins your chances. The data is more nuanced. We examine 15 years of Premier League red cards and their actual impact on results.
How we write
Every Varqyst story starts with a question and a dataset. Our editorial team identifies patterns in publicly available football statistics, verifies them against multiple sources, and builds narratives around the findings.
We do not make predictions. We describe what the data shows, contextualise it historically, and let readers draw their own conclusions. All statistical claims are sourced and verifiable.
Categories
- Data History — landmark moments re-examined through modern analytics
- Spatial Analysis — where on the pitch things happen, mapped and measured
- Historical — long-term trends across multiple Premier League seasons
- Match Analysis — deep-dives into specific match events and their data
- Tactical — formations, pressing, possession, and how they translate to results
- Research — original analysis on broader football questions
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